Stronger Data Last Week Caused a Slight Rate Bump

As we head into the first week of December, mortgage rates are starting out just a bit higher than they were before the Thanksgiving holiday. The move was small, but it was driven by something important: stronger-than-expected economic data last week.

If you pressed pause on your home search for the holiday, this is a good moment to catch up on what happened and what it means for your next steps.

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What Happened Last Week?

Two key reports came out before the holiday:

• Jobless claims stayed low.
  Fewer people filed for unemployment than economists expected, which signals that the job market is still holding up.

• Durable-goods orders beat expectations.
  Durable goods are big-ticket items like machinery, equipment, and appliances—things businesses buy when they feel reasonably confident about the future. Stronger durable-goods numbers suggest that business activity remains solid.

Together, those reports painted a picture of an economy that is still reasonably strong, not weakening sharply.

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Why Stronger Data Can Nudge Rates Higher

Mortgage rates are closely tied to the bond market. When economic data looks strong:

• Investors often expect the Federal Reserve to be more cautious about future rate cuts.

• Bonds can become less attractive compared to riskier assets like stocks.

• As bond prices fall, yields (and therefore mortgage rates) tend to drift higher.

That is exactly what we saw heading into this week:
The bond market weakened a bit after the stronger reports, and the average 30-year fixed rate moved slightly higher as a result.

The key word here is “slightly.” This was not a major spike—just a small adjustment based on last week’s numbers.

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Where Mortgage Rates Stand Now

Even with the modest bump:

• The average 30-year fixed is still near the lowest levels we’ve seen in recent weeks.

• Affordability is still better than it was earlier in the year when rates were higher.

• The overall trend is more “stable with small ups and downs” than “surging higher.”

So while last week’s data was strong enough to move rates a bit, it did not erase the improvements buyers have seen recently.

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What This Means if You’re Thinking About Buying or Refinancing

If you hit pause for the holiday, here’s what to keep in mind:

• Your buying power likely hasn’t changed much.
  A slight move in rates usually doesn’t make or break a purchase on its own, but it can nudge your monthly payment up or down.

• This is a good time to refresh your numbers.
  An updated quote can show you where your payment lands today and whether it still fits your budget.

• The market is still data-driven.
  Upcoming reports on jobs, inflation, and consumer spending will continue to influence where rates go next. For now, we’re in a relatively stable zone with mild day-to-day movement.

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Bottom Line

Stronger jobless-claims and durable-goods data from last week gave mortgage rates a slight push higher to start December, but the average 30-year fixed is still hovering near recent lows.

If you paused your home search or refinance plans for Thanksgiving, this week is a great time to check in, update your numbers, and see whether the current market still works for your goals.

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#affordability

Source: Mortgage News Daily

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